After taking on the Mets in Flushing, the Nationals continue their road trip in Cincinnati to take on the Reds. The Reds are currently 17-32 after having one of the worst starts to a season in recent memory. They were 3-22 in their first 25 games. Let’s look at the pitching matchups for this four-game set.
Thursday, June 2, RHP Joan Adon (1-8, 6.08 ERA) vs RHP Graham Ashcraft (1-0, 1.69 ERA) | First Pitch: 6:40 ET
Joan Adon had his first great start in a long time. He went six innings, struck out three, and gave up two runs, both unearned. With 47 innings under his belt, we can draw conclusions about Adon. As we have been saying here, walks remain by far his biggest issue. If he can continue to cut down on these walks, Adon may be a solid starter, but until then, he will be merely a replacement-level starter.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown two starts in this young season. He draws a lot of groundouts with his four-seam, sinker, and slider combo. He had some prospect hype and is ranked seventh on MLB Pipeline. His peripheral numbers were not great, and that could come to the forefront against the Nationals.
This game will be televised on MASN, and you can listen on 106.7 The Fan.
Friday, June 3, RHP Josiah Gray (5-4, 5.08 ERA) vs LHP Mike Minor (season debut) | First Pitch: 6:40 ET
After a rough start against the Dodgers, Josiah Gray bounced back against the Colorado Rockies. He continues to see-saw every other start, so by that metric, this will be a rough start for Gray. For those at home who want stronger performances from Gray, note that his 18.6% HR/FB rate is above the 15.3% average. Gray, like Adon, would benefit from cutting down on his walks.
This is Mike Minor’s season debut after battling a shoulder injury. The Royals traded him this offseason in exchange for RP Amir Garrett. Minor had a spectacular 2019 with the Rangers and has come back down to earth since then, becoming a solid veteran back-end left-handed arm in his mid-30s. He throws a low 90’s fastball, along with a slider, curveball, and changeup.
This game will be televised on MASN, and you can listen on 106.7 The Fan.
Quick Notes: “We are not trading Juan Soto” from GM Mike Rizzo on 106.7 the fan
Saturday, June 4, RHP Erick Fedde (3-4, 4.60 ERA) vs RHP Tyler Mahle (2-5, 5.53 ERA) | First pitch: 4:10 ET MASN and 106.7 The Fan
Things finally went wrong for Erick Fedde. His peripherals never lined up with his 3.55 ERA prior to his start against the Mets. This Reds lineup is much worse than the Mets, and if he can do what he did against the Dodgers for most of his starts, Fedde’s numbers will look much better, peripheral and face-level.
Speaking of peripheral stats, Mahle has some pretty good ones. Despite a 5.53 ERA, Mahle has a 3.70 FIP and 1.0 fWAR, twice as much as Erick Fedde. Mahle is due for some positive regression, and hopefully, for the Nationals, it comes after this series.
This game will be televised on MASN, and you can listen on 106.7 The Fan.
Sunday, June 5, LHP Patrick Corbin (1-8, 6.96 ERA) vs RHP Luis Castillo (2-2, 3.38 ERA) | First Pitch: 1:40 ET
What is there to say that has not been said about Patrick Corbin’s season thus far. Even The Nats Report’s Henry Marks did an excellent deep dive on his numbers. He will probably face an almost exclusively right-handed lineup, which he has posted stronger peripheral numbers against.
Luis Castillo has been very good this season. His strikeout numbers have been down compared to his breakout 2019 season, but otherwise, he has been very good. He likely will not be a Red come August, but until then his dominant sinker, changeup, four-seam, and slider combo will carve up NL Central hitters.
This game will be televised on MASN, and you can listen on 106.7 The Fan.
Other Notes
- Juan Soto is chasing pitches outside of the zone at the highest rate since 2019. It is important to note he is also seeing the least amount of pitches in the zone that he has ever seen.
- Since May 15th, Victor Robles has had a .276/.342/.362 triple slash, which is about league average.
- The Reds and the Nationals have the two worst records in the National League. If it was not for the Detriot Tigers, it would be the worst in baseball.
- The Nationals narrowly avoid Hunter Greene, the flamethrowing prospect whose fastball averages 98.6 MPH.
- Joey Votto is hoping for a lot of hits this series, with his career batting average falling below .300, now sitting at .299.
- In case you missed it, Reds outfielder Tommy Pham brought himself into the news recently.
