As mentioned in our previous post, Hector Gomez reported that the Nationals and Juan Soto have been in serious negotiations around a 13-year/425 million dollar deal. If this is true, what does it really mean?
This would be the second-largest deal of all time by total money, behind Mike Trout‘s 12-year/$426.5 million deal, though I’d expect Soto to try to push his deal over that number.
What really sets Soto apart is age. The only player on a 300+ MM deal who is younger than Soto is Fernando Tatís Jr. Even then, Soto would average almost 8 million more a year than Fernando Tatis jr. This brings us to AAV. Soto’s AAV would be about $32,700,000.
Yeah, that’s a lot of money.
Currently, FanGraphs has found teams are willing to spend ~$8.5 million per fWAR. Therefore, the Nationals are expecting Juan to put up about 4 fWAR a year, and about 50 fWAR over the course of the deal. While the deal is nowhere near done, it is absolutely plausible and would be monumental.
More to come...