Now that the 2023 season is officially over, the Nationals will focus on the 2023 season that, includes the 2023 draft.
Unlike in previous seasons, where the draft order was fixed in the inverse of the prior year’s standings, the 2023 draft will be subject to a lottery. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the top selections.
Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America relayed the odds for the first overall pick in next season’s draft. With the Washington Nationals at the top with a 16.5% chance.
Here are the top ten odds on favorite to get the overall picks:
- Nationals (55-107): 16.5%
- Athletics (60-102): 16.5%
- Pirates (62-100, 61-101 in ’21): 16.5%
- Reds (62-100, 83-79 in ’21): 13.25%
- Royals (65-97): 10%
- Tigers (66-96): 7.5%
- Rangers (68-94, 60-102 in ’21): 5.5%
- Rockies (68-94, 74-87 in ’21): 3.9%
- Marlins (69-93): 2.7%
- Angels (73-89): 1.8%
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).